Browns vs Bears Game Preview: Sunday 1 PM 12/16/23

December 16, 2023

Andy Billman Tony Camino

Week 15 Game Breakdown and Picks


1 – Fabulous Flacco 

Joe Flacco is carrying the Browns and the city on its back right now. It is incredible on December 17th, we are heading into the final four-game stretch for the Browns, and even with all of the injuries, Flacco brings a sense of calm to everybody. 

He must continue to play at a high level on Sunday as he seems to have an advantage over Bears starter and former Buckeye star Justin Fields.

2 – Injuries

From here on out, looking at the injury report is a must before every Sunday.  The Browns got terrible news this week about the offensive line, as now they are down to their 4th and 5th string offensive tackle with Geron Christian and James Hudson III.  There is no C Ethan Pocic either, as it will be Nick Harris at center. This game will challenge the offensive line, especially in the run game.

Defensively, Cleveland Juan Thornhill tops the list for players who are, as the Browns will not have Thornhill or Grant Delpit, who is out for the rest of the regular season.  Safety is a fragile position for the Browns.

The defense will also be without Ogbo Okoronkwo on the defensive line, and the defensive tackle position is also thin as Jordan Elliot is a game-time decision.   

We could continue, but we will stop here for now, lordy.

3 – Run game 

The Bears love to run the ball and stop the run on defense. They are second overall in yardage allowed on defense for Chicago.  The Browns must stop the run game and figure out how to get yards against a staunch defensive; expect a lot of passes from Kevin Stefanski on Sunday.

Overall:

It felt like a win back in September for the Browns playing the Bears at home.  Even with the injuries, I still think the same and look forward to a big day from Myles Garrett

Browns win 31-13!  Give the three points.


Cleveland Browns Notes

Cleveland maintains an average of 22.2 points and 326.4 yards in total offense, ranking 12th and 19th, respectively. The running game performs exceptionally well, averaging 131 yards per game, securing the 7th spot in the NFL, while the passing attack averages 195.4 yards per game, placing 23rd. Unfortunately, turnovers pose a challenge, with the team ranking last in the NFL with 27.

In the quarterback position, 38-year-old veteran Joe Flacco has accumulated 565 passing yards, throwing five touchdowns and two interceptions. The running back, Jerome Ford, has showcased a robust performance with 698 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while wide receiver Amari Cooper boasts 876 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

On the defensive front, Cleveland allows an average of 20.9 points and 263.0 yards per game, placing 14th and 1st in the NFL, respectively. The rush defense stands strong, allowing an average of 103.3 yards per game (11th), and the pass defense is the best in the league, permitting only 159.7 yards per game. Notably, safety Grant Delpit, the leading tackler with 80 tackles, is currently sidelined due to injury. Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah follows closely with 78 tackles. Myles Garrett, questionable for Sunday, leads the team in quarterback sacks with 13, while cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. has secured a team-best four interceptions.


Chicago Bears Notes

The Chicago Bears currently maintain an average of 20.8 points and 324.2 yards in total offense per game, ranking 20th and 21st, respectively. Their ground game stands out as the fourth best in the NFL, with an average of 138 rushing yards per game, while their passing game ranks 26th at 186.2 yards per game. Quarterback Justin Fields has thrown for 1,810 yards, accumulating 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. Fields also leads the team in rushing with 458 yards and two touchdowns, while D’Onta Foreman contributes 431 yards on the ground with four touchdowns. DJ Moore tops the receiving charts for Chicago with 76 catches, 1,071 yards, and seven touchdowns.

On the defensive side, the Bears allow an average of 23.8 points and 314.5 yards per game, ranking 23rd and 12th, respectively. They boast the second-best run defense in the league, limiting opponents to an average of only 83.7 rushing yards per game. However, they face a setback with the absence of their top defensive lineman, Yannick Ngakoue, due to a broken ankle. In the passing game, Chicago yields an average of 230.8 yards per game, placing them 23rd in the league. TJ Edwards leads the team in tackles with 131. Ngakoue, before his injury, led in quarterback sacks with 4.0, and the current leader is Montez Sweat with four sacks.


Tony Camino’s Best Bets for Browns vs. Bears – Week 15

Elijah Moore once again covers his line with a 43-yard day, while Dustin Hopkins finishes with seven kicking points for another perfect Sunday in the Browns game. That makes it 13 of the last 14 picks here that have hit in the last seven games, with the only miss being Jerome Ford needing 13 carries and getting eight on the first drive but not covering. The Browns set themselves up very nicely for the postseason race in Week 14, but they have a surging Bears team coming to town. The injuries continue to pile up, but the Browns always rally when playing in Cleveland. Here are two good bets for Browns versus Bears in Week 15.

Elijah Moore Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

We took Elijah Moore’s yards at similar lines in each of the last two weeks, and we’re going to take it again in this one. Moore has covered his line in 62% of games this season, including each of the last five. He has seven targets in seven of the last nine games, with one of the games having fewer due to a blowout against the Cardinals.

Moore and Flacco have always had a good connection, as he has covered this line in eight of the last nine games with at least five targets in all but one game. Moore had 12 targets in Week 13 against the Rams and saw six a week ago versus the Jaguars in the two games with Flacco this year. Two or more receivers tend to cover this line against the Bears this year, and the Browns are likely to be pass-heavy against a strong Bears’ run defense.

Joe Flacco Over 34.5 Passing Attempts (-135)

Joe Flacco has thrown the ball 44 or more times in each of the two games played this year, and he’s over this line in nine of the last 11 games after a win, averaging 42 attempts per game in those games. Kevin Stefanski has shown a lot of trust in the veteran quarterback and continues to put the ball in his hands to get the offense down the field.

The Bears have a very solid run defense, and the Browns are likely to struggle consistently getting yards on the ground. With two backup tackles and a backup center starting, the run game isn’t likely going to keep the offense on schedule, and they will be put in a lot of passing situations. The Bears have seen the seventh-most pass attempts per game this year, seeing 36.1 per game on average. Each of the last nine quarterbacks has thrown at least 30 times against the Bears, and three of the last four covered this line.

Recap

The Browns’ injuries continue to pile up, but they show every week that this is a resilient group. Chicago is playing good football lately and will likely try to take advantage of aggressive downhill linemen with outside quarterback runs. Fields holds the ball much longer than other quarterbacks, and if they don’t scheme the ball out quickly, the Browns could have a big day in the sack department. If the Browns can win the turnover margin and stop the run, they should be able to get their seventh home win of the season.

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