Tanner Bibee will be on the mound today trying to stop the sweep of the Diamondbacks, and Zach Davies is on the bump for Arizona. Davies does have an ERA above 5 and Vegas does have the Guards as the favorite today, so there is hopefulness to get a win today.
Behind the plate, today for the Guardians will be Bo Naylor. Bo comes into the game looking for his first MLB hit of the season as he is 0 for 2 in 2023.
For all of the struggles with the Guardians hitting and scoring runs in 2023, they do have a true leadoff hitter with Steven Kwan. Kwan is quietly having a good season and he is one of the most consistent hitters in the Guardians lineup. He leads the team in runs, stolen bases, and at-bats and he is second with hits and doubles.
Remember when the 2022 Cleveland Guardians finished 29th in home runs and knew they needed to improve upon that following an ALDS exit? Well, nearly halfway through 2023, the team is last in homers hit, resulting in a runs-per-game mark that’s 27th in the league. Their strikeout rate may be the second-lowest, but it’s hard to rack up hits with MLB’s worst hard-hit rate. The Guardians also don’t draw walks (25th in walk rate), so they can’t fully weaponize their speed without finding a hole in the defense. Cleveland is 16-5 when they score at least five runs. However, getting there is a tedious chore.
Perched comfortably atop the NL West standings and within striking distance of the National League’s best record, the Diamondbacks are reminiscent of their successful 2011 season. This team has proven itself to be the real deal, primarily thanks to its formidable offense. While their walk rate ranks 21st, the Diamondbacks excel in almost every other aspect. They are fifth in runs per game, stolen bases, and slugging percentage, and they boast the third-lowest strikeout rate. Leading the charge is rookie Corbin Carroll, who currently tops the majors in Offensive WAR and offensive winning percentage. Keeping the Diamondbacks from scoring runs has proven to be quite challenging.
On the pitching side, they have been solid but not exceptional, ranking 18th in ERA. However, they have shown improvement as of late. Several bullpen pitchers have gained trust in high-pressure situations, which occur frequently due to the leads the team builds. The starting rotation plays a crucial role, and unfortunately, Zach Davies has struggled at home. He has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) in 16.1 innings pitched at home this season. In fact, Davies’ start on Tuesday was his worst outing of the year, surrendering six runs (four earned) in just 3.0 innings. During that span, he conceded six hits and three walks. While Davies has managed to limit home runs better than ever before in his career, he continues to face challenges with hits, walks, and runs.
The offense has been a disappointment for the men on the mound. Despite Cleveland ranking eighth in team ERA, their bullpen is second only to the Yankees in that category. Usually, it’s the starting pitcher’s responsibility to hand over the ball to the strong relievers in a close game. This Sunday afternoon, Tanner Bibee will strive to fulfill that duty. Unfortunately, his previous start on the road was quite underwhelming. Against San Diego, Bibee endured a challenging outing, surrendering six runs and lasting only four innings. Considering Cleveland’s offensive struggles, such performances won’t often suffice. Nonetheless, Bibee has been having a commendable rookie season, boasting a 3.81 FIP and a 105 ERA+ after nine starts. However, he now faces a formidable offense following his recent unraveling against another NL West team. Both physically and mentally, this upcoming game will be a demanding test for Bibee.
Our Pick: Take Diamondbacks and Moneyline
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