Guardians (48-49) vs Phillies (52-45) Game Preview | 7/22 7:10 PM

July 22, 2023

Andy Billman

GM 2 of the Series Against the Philadelphia Phillies

1 – Bibee

Next up on the Guardian’s rookie starting pitching merry-go-around is Tanner Bibee, who has not lost in over a month and his ERA has dropped to 3.32. Bibee has also only given up three earned runs in the month of July. 

2 – .500 

If the Guardians win tonight against the Phillies they will be back to .500 at 49-49.  And with a quick look ahead, after this series with Philadelphia, Cleveland’s three of the next four series are against AL Central opponents (vs KC, at CWS, at HOU, vs. CWS).  An opportunity to gobble up some wins in the division. 

3 – Fry, Fry, Fry

David Fry proved again last night why he has earned more at-bats going 2 for 4 with 2 RBIs and raising his batting average to .290.  Need to find more at-bats for Fry.

Guardians Notes

The Guardians’ bats were quick to make an impact, securing two runs in the opening inning. Although they didn’t manage any home runs, their offense was still strong, amassing 13 hits with four players getting multiple hits. Leading the way was Jose Ramirez, who went 4-5 and scored two runs. Gavin Williams started the game and performed admirably, striking out three batters and allowing only one run over four innings.

Looking ahead, right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee is scheduled to take the mound for his eighth home start of the season. The 24-year-old has an impressive 5-2 record this season with a solid 3.32 ERA. His performance at home has been particularly outstanding, maintaining a strong 2.31 ERA. Notably, he has given up just one home run at Progressive Field and has held opposing batters to a batting average of .196. However, under night-game conditions, his ERA has risen to 4.08, and he has allowed five home runs, the most in any pitching situation. Nevertheless, he still managed to record 40 strikeouts over 39 innings thrown during night games. In July, Bibee has been on fire, boasting an impressive 1.62 ERA and limiting opponents to a batting average below .200. He has only allowed one homer and struck out 19 batters in 16 innings during the month. However, his walk rate has increased slightly in July, something to keep an eye on if he starts the game less focused.

Cleveland enters this game with an even run differential, placing them 18th in baseball rankings. While they have a solid batting average and are in the top half of the league in this regard, their scoring has been lackluster, ranking in the bottom 10 in runs scored per game. This issue is largely due to their league-worst home run rate and their position near the bottom in extra-base hits. Despite these challenges, their disciplined approach at the plate has contributed to their success in winning games. Interestingly, during night games this season, the majority of their home runs and extra-base hits have been achieved. In July, they’ve maintained their season batting average, but their home run hitting has significantly improved, on pace for their best home run-hitting month with 17 homers in 15 games. The Guardians aim to continue this positive trend, hoping for even better performances in the upcoming matches.

Guardians Stats and Insights


  • Bibee makes the start for the Guardians, his 15th of the season. He is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 76 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last time out came on Sunday against the Texas Rangers, when the right-hander tossed six innings, surrendering two earned runs while allowing five hits.
  • Bibee is looking for his sixth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.4 frames per start.
  • In one of his appearances this season, he did not allow an earned run.
  • The Guardians have a 2-6 record in Bibee’s eight starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Bibee’s team has put together a 7-7 record over his 14 starts.
  • Bibee has had 14 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season and six of those outings finished over the total.


  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 17 games this season and are 13-4 in those matchups.
  • Cleveland has gone 14-5 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have a record of 34-27 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Cleveland has a 29-7 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 22 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 13-9

Phillies Notes

In the series opener, the Phillies struggled to take the lead, finally scoring their first run in the 3rd inning. However, their bats came alive in the 7th inning, with both JT Realmuto and Bryson Stott hitting home runs. Stott had a notable performance with two runs, just like Alec Bohm. Nonetheless, no other Phillies player managed to log multiple hits during the game. Ranger Suarez was given the opportunity to start and pitched for five innings, striking out five batters but allowing four runs.

In the upcoming match, RHP Zack Wheeler is scheduled to make his 10th road start of the season. Currently, he holds a 5-4 record with a 4.04 ERA for the season. His performance on the road has been solid, matching his overall season average, and he boasts a 5-2 away record. Wheeler has been particularly effective away from home, conceding the fewest home runs and striking out 60 batters in 51 innings. However, during night games, his throwing ERA drops to 5.13, and opponents have had more success hitting against him with a .273 batting average. In July, he has a 1-0 record but with an ERA of 5.00. During this period, he has allowed four home runs over three games and 18 innings, which is a concern for Phillies fans. Nevertheless, he has managed to strike out 20 batters and aims to keep the Guardians’ offense in check to avoid giving up more home runs.

Currently, the Phillies have a run differential of +7, ranking them 17th in the league. They have performed well in terms of batting average, placing them in the top 10, but they tend to struggle with hitting for extra bases, often relying on singles. Additionally, they have faced issues leaving runners stranded on base. Their performance on the road and during night games is consistent with their season average, but they have been more successful in hitting home runs during night games. However, in July, their batting average improved, and they are on track for their best month in terms of home runs, hitting 21 long balls over their 15 games. To continue their success, the Phillies need to maintain discipline at the plate and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Phillies Stats and Insights


  • Wheeler and his team have a record of 8-11-0 against the spread when he starts.
  • The right-hander gave up three earned runs in seven innings pitched on Sunday in his last outing, a matchup with the San Diego Padres.
  • Wheeler has pitched five or more innings in seven straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has four appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 19 chances this season.
  • Wheeler’s team has won 64.7% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (11-6).
  • Wheeler’s team has won 13 of his 19 starts.
  • Games started by Wheeler have an 8-9-2 record at hitting the over this season.


  • The Phillies are 22-8 this season in games when they crush at least two homers.
  • Philadelphia is 18-6 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club is 41-23 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
  • Philadelphia has a 37-6 record in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
  • The Phillies are 22-9 in the 31 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Final Thoughts/Pick

The Guardians have finally got the bats going in July, particularly in regard to home runs as they’re on pace for their best month of the season. Bibee has been a strong pitcher at home this season, and he’s also continued his hot arm into July. What’s more, he’s limited the home runs which have been a staple for the Phillies given their lack of extra-base hits. Wheeler has been tossing well under the lights, but home runs have also been an issue on the road and this month. Look for the home dog to take care of business in game two.

Our Pick: The GUARDIANS are the choice.

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