The Guardians are off to a slow start after the all-star game going 4-6 since coming back. It is starting to get unnerving as the Twins are now four games up on the standings over the Guardians as Cleveland is now two games under .500.
Big start for the Guardians lone veteran Aaron Civale who is having a strong July pitching to an ERA of 1.93. Cleveland will be up against the Royals veteran Zack Greinke.
The Guardians have had three catchers on the roster most of the season, not the norm for most teams. Cleveland has been rotating the three catchers recently pretty evenly when it comes to starts for Cam Gallagher, Bo Naylor, and David Fry. The one note that has become apparent is manager Terry Francona wants to find at-bats for Fry, who has been starting in the outfield as well to get more chances at the plate. Will the Guardians start Fry over the other two at catcher is something to watch in the coming weeks.
The AL Central champions of 2022 are currently trailing the top spot in the standings by a few games. This situation is somewhat reminiscent of the previous year when they spent much of the season chasing the Twins. Now, they are gearing up for a crucial matchup against the Royals, a team they have already scored an impressive 39 runs against in seven games. Despite struggling to score for most of the year (ranking 24th in runs per game), they seemed to have found some form in July, averaging 5.0 runs per game until Monday’s match. The team’s strength lies in their exceptional contact skills, boasting the MLB’s lowest strikeout rate and a respectable 13th ranking in batting average. However, they do face challenges in their walk rate, ranking 25th, and they have hit the fewest home runs in the entire league, which reflects the issues they encountered last season. On the bright side, like the Royals, the Guardians excel at stealing bases, maintaining an impressive 80.0% success rate entering the week.
Cleveland’s pitching has remained impressive, even though their bullpen experienced a rough month. Despite the slump, the group of relievers still ranks 12th in FIP and an impressive third in ERA for this season. The rotation has also done its part, and Aaron Civale has been a standout performer in his 11 starts. Despite experiencing a career-high walk rate and a career-low strikeout rate, Civale has achieved a remarkable 2.71 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, and 3.71 FIP, all representing career-best numbers for seasons where he has faced at least 250 batters. Notably, in his sole start against Kansas City this season, Civale displayed his brilliance by pitching seven innings of two-hit ball, striking out nine batters while issuing no walks. The Royals never posed a serious threat during that game. Although the Guardians have lost both of his starts since then, a repeat performance from Civale would be enthusiastically embraced and much needed to bolster their chances.
In the series standings, the Kansas City Royals find themselves just above the Oakland Athletics, with the worst winning percentage. Their performance has been disappointing in various aspects of the game, but the offense stands out as the main weakness. With a rank of 29th in runs per game and the MLB’s lowest on-base percentage (OBP), the Royals’ batting struggles are evident. In July, they are among six teams scoring fewer than four runs per game.
However, it’s not all bleak for the Royals. They do have a strong steal game, ranking 5th with 84 successful steals out of 110 attempts, resulting in a 76.4% success rate. But aside from their base-stealing prowess, their overall performance at the plate has been lackluster. They rank poorly in home runs (28th), walk rate (28th), slugging percentage (27th), and batting average (25th).
On the pitching side, the team’s ERA ranks 28th out of 30 teams. The bullpen has been particularly problematic throughout the season, and the trade of Aroldis Chapman hasn’t helped matters. Additionally, the starting rotation features pitchers who are likely in the twilight of their MLB careers, including Zack Greinke, who may have a future spot in Cooperstown but currently shows signs of decline. Greinke has struggled with a 5.40 ERA this season and an even worse 7.42 ERA in away games. This year’s ERA represents the second-worst of his 20-year career, along with a current 4.92 FIP.
In June, Greinke managed to secure a rare win for the Royals by limiting the Guardians to two runs over 6.0 innings despite giving up 11 hits. However, that win stands as the only one in his past 11 starts, highlighting the challenges the team faces in finding success on the field.
Having experienced a five-game losing streak heading into Cleveland, the Royals are continuing their season’s trend of struggling. The Guardians, have dominated them throughout the year, and with a skilled pitcher on the mound, the chances of another loss appear quite certain. Adding to the Royals’ concerns is Zack Greinke’s poor performance on the road this season, while the Guardians have been impressive with their hitting this month.
Even if the game remains competitive in the later innings, Cleveland’s bullpen offers a significant advantage, further favoring the home team. All signs point to a decisive victory for the Guardians, likely by multiple runs.
Our Pick: Take Guardians Run Line -1.5
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