Gavin Williams will be looking for his first win since July 8th as he toes the mound tonight for the Guards. Williams has only been able to get through four innings in his last two starts and has not gone six-plus innings since the Braves start back on July 3rd.
July was a tough month for Andres Gimenez batting barely over 200 with a .211 average in July. In his last seven games with 28 at-bats, Gimenez only has three hits over that span.
Myles Straw got a hit last night and that was a welcome sight as Straw had not gotten a hit in a week. Straw is currently one of his last 17 at-bats.
Throughout the season, the Guardians have maintained a .500 win-loss record, keeping them within striking distance in the division. One of their highly-touted prospects, Gavin Williams, has encountered challenges on the mound, conceding 14 runs in 37.2 innings pitched. Opponents have found success against him with a .268 expected opponent Batting Average, a high 10.8 Walk Rate, and a 4.74 expected ERA, capitalizing on their plate appearances to drive in runs easily.
While Williams’ struggles are evident, the bigger disappointment for the team lies in their lineup’s performance, as they have only managed to score an average of 4.16 runs per game. On a positive note, Jose Ramirez has been exceptional with a .292 batting average, a .361 on-base percentage, and a .510 slugging percentage, hitting 18 home runs and accumulating 206 total bases. Similarly, Josh Naylor has also performed well with a .308 batting average, a .347 on-base percentage, and a .504 slugging percentage, achieving 15 home runs and 180 total bases. However, the rest of the batting order has struggled significantly. Only three batters have an OPS+ (On-base Plus Slugging Plus) score over 100, making the lineup top-heavy and allowing opposing pitchers to effectively contain the team’s offense.
Once again the Astros are having a remarkable season, showing great potential to win their division. Although Framber Valdez, one of their top pitchers, is facing challenges on the mound, conceding 46 runs in 126 innings pitched, the rest of the team has stepped up to compensate.
Valdez’s statistics indicate a tough season, with a .249 expected opponent Batting Average, a 46.5 Hard-Hit Percentage, and a 4.08 expected ERA. Opponents are taking advantage of this and scoring runs easily against him.
However, the Astros’ lineup has been exceptional. They are scoring an impressive average of 4.77 runs per game, and since the All-Star break, they have increased it to 5.93 runs per game. Yordan Alvarez has been outstanding, boasting a .286/.394/.594 slash line with 18 home runs and 129 total bases. Chas McCormick has also been contributing significantly, with a .285/.372/.526 slash line, 13 home runs, and 120 total bases.
The team’s success doesn’t end there. Kyle Tucker is excelling with a .299/.380/.511 slash line, 18 home runs, and 193 total bases. Alex Bregman and Yainer Diaz are making their mark as well, adding 31 home runs and 224 total bases to the back half of the lineup. With such an impressive offensive performance, the Astros are proving to be a formidable force at the plate, making it challenging for opponents to stop them.
The Guardians are eager to make a push in their division, but the Astros have the opportunity to take charge at home and dominate this game. With an impressive average of 4.77 runs per game, the Astros should confidently drive in runs, utilizing the talents of players like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, who can make solid contact and crush pitches against the Guardians’ pitchers. This should lead to easy scoring opportunities and runs for the Astros as their lineup excels.
Moreover, the Astros’ pitching, led by Framber Valdez, has the potential to limit the Guardians’ lineup to an average of 4.16 runs per game. Valdez is expected to step up and deliver multiple scoreless innings, providing a comfortable lead for the Astros. As a result, their bullpen should have no trouble closing out the game with confidence.
Overall, the Astros are likely to win the game convincingly at home, covering the spread in a dominant display of their skills and home advantage.
Our Pick: Astros and the run line -1.5
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