Guardians (63-70) vs. Twins (69-64) Match-Up Preview | 8/30 1:10 PM EST

August 30, 2023

Andy Billman

Series Finale Against the Twins


3 Things Preview For Today’s Game:

 1 – Battlin Bibee

Tanner Bibee starts Wednesday afternoon for the Guards in what feels like another must-win situation.  This will be Bibee’s second time playing against the Twins and in his only other start, he went five innings, giving up three earned with a no-decision.

2 – Gaddis

Hunter Gaddis saved the day by relieving Gavin Williams after he left early with an injury on Tuesday night going three innings while only giving up one run, and most importantly keeping the Guardians ahead on the scoreboard.

3 – Loving August

Sam Hentges also pitched two innings on Tuesday night while giving up zero runs, which has been the norm in the month of August.  Hentges in 12 2/3 innings pitched has yet to give up a run in the month of August.


Guardians Notes


Cleveland secured victory in two out of three games against Toronto in their recent series. Although the season is ongoing, achieving greater consistency throughout September will be crucial for Cleveland to surpass Minnesota and claim the AL Central championship.

The Guardians have been averaging 4.06 runs per game (ranking 26th), with a batting average of .248 (ranked 17th), and a .691 OPS (ranked 26th). They’ve hit 101 home runs (ranking 30th) and executed 109 stolen bases (ranking 8th) during the 2023 season. On the pitching front, Cleveland’s pitching staff has maintained an ERA of 3.88 (ranked 6th) and a WHIP of 1.29 (ranked 17th), accumulating 48 quality starts (ranked 13th).

Taking the mound for the visiting team in the series finale will be Bibee. In his previous start, the rookie pitcher secured a victory against Toronto, limiting the Jays to two runs while tallying five strikeouts across six innings. Bibee has impressively held twelve consecutive opponents to three runs or fewer and has only surrendered four or more runs on two occasions this year. In his most recent performance against the Twins on June 1st, Bibee gave up three runs and six hits over five innings.

Guardians Stats and Insights

GUARDIANS PROBABLE PITCHER – Tanner Bibee

  • Bibee makes the start for the Guardians, his 22nd of the season. He is 10-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 117 strikeouts over 119 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last time out on Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays, the right-hander threw six innings, giving up two earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • Bibee will try to continue a 13-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.7 frames per outing).
  • He has had three appearances this season in which he did not allow an earned run.
  • The Guardians are 6-7 in Bibee’s 13 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Bibee’s team has won 12 of his 21 starts.
  • Bibee has had 21 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in eight of those matchups.

GUARDIANS HITTING TRENDS

  • They have won 20 of the 26 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Cleveland has gone 19-6 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 43 of the 80 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • In 48 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 37-11.
  • They have won 18 of their 30 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Twins Notes

Minnesota is comfortably ahead of Cleveland and Detroit in the AL Central, but they can’t simply relax until the end. To make an impact in the postseason, they’ll need a strong finish as a crucial catalyst.

The Twins have an average of 4.54 runs (ranked 14th), a batting average of .241 (ranked 21st), and a .743 OPS (ranked 15th). They’ve hit 185 home runs (ranked 5th) and stolen 68 bases (ranked 24th) so far this season. On the pitching side, the Minnesota staff has achieved a 3.94 ERA (ranked 8th) and a 1.21 WHIP (ranked 3rd), boasting the highest number of quality starts in the league.

Taking the mound for Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon at Target Field will be Gray. In his most recent outing, the experienced right-handed pitcher secured a victory against Texas, limiting the Rangers to just one run and six hits over seven innings. Throughout five appearances in August (32.2 IP), he has conceded nine earned runs and 24 hits. Gray has crossed paths with the Guardians twice in 2023, allowing a total of six runs and 14 hits in 11.2 innings of combined play.

Twins Stats and Insights

TWINS PROBABLE PITCHER – Sonny Gray

  • Gray and his team are 11-15-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed seven innings while giving up one earned run on six hits in a matchup with the Texas Rangers.
  • Gray will look to finish five or more innings for the 13th start in a row.
  • He has five appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 26 chances this season.
  • Gray’s team has a record of 9-9 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • In games Gray has started, his team is 12-14.
  • In Gray’s 26 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 11 times.

TWINS HITTING TRENDS

  • The Twins have racked up at least two dingers in 67 games this season, and are 51-16 in those contests.
  • Minnesota has gone 38-8 in its 46 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The team is 59-20 in the games this season it has collected at least eight hits.
  • Minnesota is 63-12 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Twins have drawn at least five walks in 42 games this season, and are 29-13 in those contests.

Final Thoughts/Pick

Minnesota has shown a strong performance at Target Field this season with a 40-27 record in straight-up wins, along with a favorable 52-38 record as favorites. Their success extends to their matchups against AL Central opponents, boasting a 24-19 record in these games.

On the other hand, Cleveland has faced challenges on the road, recording a 29-37 record in straight-up wins, and a 28-37 record as underdogs. When playing as road underdogs, they have a 16-26 record in straight-up wins. Additionally, their performance against division opponents has led to a 19-22 record this year.

Looking ahead to the series finale, it’s advisable to back Sonny Gray and the Twins. Gray, the Twins’ starting pitcher, has an impressive track record in day games, with a 4-1 record, a 2.29 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP. He has also exhibited strength at home this season, boasting a 3.05 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 13 starts. Gray’s ability to limit opponents to a .191 batting average adds to the confidence that he will deliver a quality start against the struggling lineup of the Guardians, who have posted a .226 batting average, .284 on-base percentage, .357 slugging percentage, and .641 OPS in the month of August.

Cleveland’s starter, Tanner Bibee, has demonstrated less consistency on the road this season, with an ERA of 3.94 which is nearly twice his home ERA of 2.02. Despite having only one more road start than home starts, Bibee has given up 25 more hits and nine more home runs when pitching on the road.

The Twins have excelled at the plate recently, with a strong performance in August, displaying a .254 batting average, a .341 on-base percentage, a .463 slugging percentage, and a .804 OPS. They have averaged over five runs per game during this period, indicating their offensive prowess. This trend continues from the post-All-Star break period, where they have produced an average of 5.3 runs per game compared to 4.1 runs per game in the first half of the season.

Given the circumstances and odds of -135 on the money line, the favorable choice appears to be Minnesota as the pick to secure a straight-up victory in tomorrow’s game.

Our Pick: Take Twins and the Money Line

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