Guardians (64-70) vs. Rays (82-52) Match-Up Preview | 9/1 7:10 PM EST

September 1, 2023

Andy Billman

Game 1 of 3 Against the Tampa Bay Rays


3 Things Preview For Tonight’s Game:

1 – Cal is Back!

Welcome back Cal Quantrill, Quantrill will be on the mound Friday for the Guards.  Quantrill’s last start was July 5th and his last victory was back on May 7th.

2 – Waiver Frenzy

The Guardians made news with their pickups on the waiver wire, grabbing three pitchers all let go by the LA Angels. Lucas Giolito is the headliner along with left-handed reliever Matt Moore and right-handed reliever Reynaldo Lopez.  Giolito alone would have been exciting, but adding two relievers is a huge plus for the Guards who are clearly still fighting for the division. 

3 – Haase and Battenfield 

To make room on the 40-man roster, the Guardians designated for assignment C Eric Haase and P Payton Battenfield. 


Guardians Notes

Cleveland has managed to secure back-to-back series victories against Toronto and Minnesota, narrowing the gap to just five games behind the Twins in the AL Central standings. Is there still a possibility for them to contend for the division title?

The Guardians maintain an average of 4.07 runs per game (ranking 26th), with a batting average of .248 (ranking 16th), and an OPS of .691 (ranking 26th). Throughout the season, they have hit 103 home runs (ranking 30th) and successfully stolen 112 bases (ranking 7th). On the pitching front, Cleveland’s pitching staff boasts a solid 3.85 ERA (ranking 5th) and a 1.28 WHIP (ranking 16th), having achieved 48 quality starts (ranking 13th).

Taking the mound for the home team tomorrow evening will be Cal Quantrill. This upcoming start marks only his third appearance since May 30, and notably, his first since July 5. In his last outing, he faced a loss to Atlanta, conceding five runs and 11 hits. Throughout this season, the fifth-year professional has struggled at home, recording a 1-4 record along with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP in six home starts.

Guardians Stats and Insights

GUARDIANS PROBABLE PITCHER – Cal Quantrill

  • Quantrill gets the start for the Guardians, his 14th of the season. He is 2-6 with a 6.45 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 67 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last time out was on Wednesday, July 5 against the Atlanta Braves, when the righty tossed 4 1/3 innings, surrendering five earned runs while allowing 11 hits.
  • Quantrill will try to record his eighth game of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance.
  • He has had two appearances this season that he kept his opponents to zero earned runs.
  • The Guardians are 4-4 in Quantrill’s eight starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Quantrill’s team has a 6-7 record in his 13 starts.
  • Quantrill has had 13 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in five of those matchups.

GUARDIANS HITTING TRENDS

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 26 games this season and are 20-6 in those matchups.
  • Cleveland has gone 19-6 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • In 80 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 43-37.
  • Cleveland has a 38-11 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have an 18-12 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Rays Notes

The Tampa Bay Rays have emerged victorious in eight out of their most recent ten games, securing triumphs against teams like the Rockies, Yankees, and Marlins. Although they are closely trailing behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East division rankings, their performance remains strong. The question is, can they overtake the Orioles?

Averaging 5.36 runs per game (ranking 4th), the Rays maintain a batting average of .260 (ranking 5th) and boast an impressive .779 OPS (ranking 4th). Their offensive prowess includes 194 home runs (ranking 4th) and an impressive 141 stolen bases (ranking 2nd) during the 2023 season. On the pitching side, the Tampa Bay staff has maintained a solid 3.83 ERA (ranking 4th) along with a 1.18 WHIP (ranking 2nd), and they’ve notched 44 quality starts (ranking 17th).

Taking the mound for the upcoming Friday game is Tyler Glasnow, a seasoned right-hander. In his most recent outing, he displayed his expertise by allowing just one hit and zero runs across six innings, resulting in a victory against the Yankees. This performance marked a significant rebound after a less impressive showing against the Angels, where he gave up seven runs and eight hits in six innings. It’s noteworthy that Glasnow has held opponents to one run or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Rays Stats and Insights

RAYS PROBABLE PITCHER – Tyler Glasnow

  • When Glasnow starts, his team is 11-4-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he allowed one hit in six scoreless innings against the New York Yankees.
  • Glasnow will look to finish five or more innings for the 11th start in a row.
  • He has made 15 appearances and finished one of them without allowing an earned run.
  • Glasnow’s team is 9-6 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Glasnow’s team is 9-6 when he starts this season.
  • Games started by Glasnow have a 7-8-0 record at hitting the over this season.

RAYS HITTING TRENDS

  • The Rays are 44-15 this season in games when they hit at least two homers.
  • Tampa Bay has gone 30-3 in its 33 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club is 62-28 in the games this season it has totaled eight or more hits.
  • Tampa Bay has a 61-19 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Rays are 24-8 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Final Thoughts/Pick

Placing a wager on the Rays’ run line for Friday seems appealing, especially with Glasnow taking the mound for Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay holds a 9-5 record on the run line following a day off and a 35-31 run line record when playing away this season. In contrast, Cleveland struggles with a 26-37 run line record after securing a victory, marking the second-lowest run line winning percentage (41.3%) following a money line triumph in MLB.

Glasnow has showcased consistent excellence throughout the year and is coming off an exceptional performance against the Yankees, where he allowed only one hit. Impressively, he has surrendered one or no runs in four out of his last five starts and has managed to limit nine out of fifteen opponents to one or zero earned runs. As a seasoned right-hander, Glasnow boasts a 4-2 record with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in seven road starts this season.

On the flip side, Quantrill is facing challenges, having given up five runs on 11 hits in his recent outing resulting in a loss to Atlanta. His struggles continue, as he allowed 25 runs and 31 hits in his previous four starts and holds a concerning 6.67 ERA in six home starts this season.

Considering recent performance, the Rays are showing their offensive prowess by scoring 21 runs in the last three games and maintaining an average of six runs per game throughout August. Notably, they exhibit solid road performance with a slash line of .264/.334/.451/.784, averaging 5.4 runs per game. In contrast, the Guardians are struggling in August with a .228 BA/.286 OBP/.361 SLG/.647 OPS and a meager average of 3.7 runs per game.

Taking all these factors into account, placing a bet on the Rays’ run line seems like a strategic choice for Friday’s matchup.

Our Pick: Take Rays and the Run Line

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