Lucas Giolito will be making his final start for the Guardians in 2023 on Tuesday against the Reds. In four starts for Cleveland, he is 1-3 with an ERA of 5.64
The Guardians are only a half-game up on the third-place Detroit Tigers heading into Tuesday. They are even in the loss column at 83 losses.
Two Guardians are tied for the best WAR on the team at 5.1 coming into the final week. Andres Gimenez and Jose Ramirez are at 5.1, and in third at 3.7 is Steven Kwan.
The Guardians won’t be participating in October baseball this year, and they won’t achieve a winning record either. Nevertheless, they can provide two additional reasons for Cleveland baseball enthusiasts to root for them in this Battle of Ohio. A promising starting point would be their offense bouncing back after two consecutive one-run performances during the weekend. The Guardians have been grappling with scoring issues, a problem that has persisted since 2022, as they currently rank 27th in scoring. Their home run count stands at a mere 118 (30th), and their hard-hit rate is a discouraging 26.7% (30th, the only team below the 30.0% mark), both of which have carried over from the previous season. Furthermore, their walk rate ranks only 25th league-wide, which is not helping their cause. However, they do excel in one area with the best strikeout rate in MLB, which typically provides them with opportunities to get on base. Additionally, they’ve managed to steal 143 bases (6th), contributing to their ability to manufacture runs. Nevertheless, the Guardians are struggling to capitalize on subpar pitches and, more importantly, they’re not consistently driving in runs.
As they entered their final regular season home game of 2023 on Sunday, the Reds were on a four-game losing streak. This unfortunate streak culminated in a disappointing loss, as they surrendered a nine-run lead to the already eliminated Pirates team. However, they managed to secure a victory on Sunday, maintaining a 2.5-game lead for the final NL wild-card spot. With just five games left in their regular season, compared to six for the Cubs, six for the Marlins, and seven for the Diamondbacks, Cincinnati knows they’ll need some assistance along the way. The fact that they hold tiebreakers over the Cubs and Diamondbacks could prove crucial as they approach game 162.
Nonetheless, the Reds understand the importance of accumulating more wins in the remaining weekend games. Their upcoming matchups against two eliminated teams should provide them with an opportunity to do just that, starting with the Guardians on Tuesday. It’s worth noting that Hunter Greene will be taking the mound, and the Reds should be pleased that this game is on the road. Greene has a 3.68 ERA in away games, a significant improvement over his performance at home. In fact, Cincinnati has emerged victorious in four of his last five road starts. Over his past four starts, Greene has been in top form, allowing only six runs (four earned) in 24.0 innings of play. During this four-start span, he has struck out 35 opponents, while conceding just 11 hits and seven walks (with four of those walks occurring in a single game). With Greene’s impressive form and the support of a fully rested bullpen that ranks fourth in WAR, the Reds can have confidence in their pitching plan for Tuesday.
When it comes to their offensive prowess, Cincinnati ranks 12th in runs per game, making their batting lineup a generally dependable asset. Furthermore, they’ve been averaging 4.82 runs in away games, which is higher than their home average. Notably, the Reds boast the highest stolen base total in MLB, with a success rate of 80%, and they also possess the league’s 10th-best walk rate, providing ample opportunities to score. However, their 23rd-ranked strikeout rate and 27th-ranked hard-hit rate have been hindrances in pushing more runs across the plate. Interestingly, despite their speed on the basepaths, they haven’t been a significant threat in the home run department during away games, clearing the fence only 76 times in 76 away games. Nevertheless, Cincinnati’s focus on speed and small-ball tactics makes home runs more of a luxury than a necessity for their scoring strategies.
Hunter Greene has been in outstanding form lately, boasting a remarkable 1.50 ERA over his past four starts. It’s worth noting that Greene has consistently performed better on the road this season, holding a 3.68 ERA and contributing to the Reds’ impressive 4-1 record in his last five away games. In his upcoming matchup, he’ll be facing a struggling Cleveland offense ranked 27th in runs per game, which has been limited to just one run in their last two games. Greene is poised to dominate, backed by Cincinnati’s reliable bullpen.
Now, let’s shift our focus to the Reds’ offense, which ranks 12th in runs per game and tends to perform better on the road. They are up against Lucas Giolito, who has struggled with a 6.52 ERA across two teams since the beginning of August. Giolito has allowed four or more runs in three of his four starts as a Guardian and previously conceded four runs to the Reds in August. Cincinnati should have no trouble putting runs on the board in this matchup. Expect them to secure a comfortable victory, especially considering their current need for a win.
Our Pick: Take Reds and the Run Line
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