Guardians (74-84) vs. Reds (81-77) Game Preview | 9/27 6:10 PM EST

September 27, 2023

Andy Billman

Series Finale Against The Cincinnati Reds

3 Things Preview For Today’s Game:

1 – Fairwell to Tito!

Today will be the last game for our beloved manager, Terry Francona.  Tee shirts will be given out thanking him for the 11 years he has dedicated to making baseball in Cleveland relevant and fun to watch.

2 – Bieber

Shane Bieber will start on Wednesday, in what might be his last appearance in a Cleveland uniform depending on whether the Guardians decide to trade Bieber in the offseason.

3 – Third Place 

After last night’s defeat, the Guardians are officially now in third place behind the Tigers by a half-game. 

Guardians Notes

In 2023, the Cleveland Guardians find themselves in a challenging situation, unable to recreate the magic that propelled them to a division title in 2022 and a spot in the divisional round following their victory over the Rays in the Wildcard round. The team struggled to maintain the consistent timely hitting that defined their performance last year, and they were plagued by a series of injuries to their starting rotation. As they enter the current series, the Guardians have faced adversity, tallying five losses in their last seven games.

In the series opener held on Tuesday, the Guardians faced the Cincinnati Reds in a high-scoring contest that featured a total of eight home runs. Unfortunately, the Guardians ended up on the losing side, with the Reds securing an 11-7 victory, marking the 84th loss of the season for Cleveland.

Looking ahead, the Guardians will entrust veteran pitcher Shane Bieber with the responsibility of leading the team on the mound. Bieber, who endured a season marred by injuries, has made 20 starts in 2023, holding a record of 5 wins and 6 losses, with 11 of those starts meeting the criteria for quality performances. Over the course of the season, he has yielded 119 hits across 122 innings pitched, resulting in an earned run average (ERA) of 3.91. Notably, Bieber’s strikeout rate has hit a career-low of 7.4 per nine innings, and his walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP) stands at 1.25.

Recently returning from a brief stint on the injured list (IL) that lasted six days, Bieber made his comeback against the Baltimore Orioles. During this game, he managed to pitch five innings, allowing six hits and five runs, of which four were earned. Bieber exhibited control, striking out five batters and issuing just one walk, contributing to a hard-fought 9-8 victory for the Guardians.

Guardians Stats and Insights


  • Bieber’s team is 9-11-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Friday, when he gave up four earned runs and allowed six hits in five innings against the Baltimore Orioles.
  • Bieber has pitched five or more innings in two straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • He has finished four appearances without allowing an earned run in 20 chances this season.
  • Bieber’s team has won 46.7% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (7-8).
  • In games Bieber has started, his team is 8-12.
  • Games Bieber has started this season hit over eight times in 20 chances.


  • The Guardians are 21-9 this season in games when they hit two or more long balls.
  • Cleveland is 21-7 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
  • The club has racked up eight or more hits 98 times this season and has a 51-47 record in those games.
  • Cleveland has a 44-16 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Guardians have drawn five or more walks in 39 games this season, and are 21-18 in those contests.

Reds Notes

Although the Cincinnati Reds may fall short of making the playoffs this season, they can undeniably label it as a resounding success. Throughout the year, the Reds have witnessed the growth of their young pitching talent and have adeptly transformed their lineup into a balanced combination of youth, speed, and power. With an impressive 80 wins already in their pocket as of Tuesday, the Reds are well-positioned to conclude the season with a winning record. As they look ahead to 2024, they emerge as strong contenders to capture the NL Central Division crown. In Tuesday’s clash with their cross-state rival, Cleveland, the Reds unleashed a barrage of five home runs, securing their 81st victory of the season in an 11-7 triumph.

In the upcoming second game of this series, the Reds will entrust the mound to one of their rising stars, the 24-year-old left-hander, Andrew Abbott. Abbott boasts a commendable record of 8-5 in 20 starts this season, including nine outings classified as quality starts. Over the course of his campaign, he has surrendered 92 hits in 107 innings pitched, maintaining a respectable ERA of 3.70. Abbott’s strikeout rate stands at an impressive 10.0 per nine innings, and his WHIP registers at 1.27. Particularly noteworthy is Abbott’s performance on the road, where he boasts a 5-1 record in 10 starts, with an ERA of 3.94. In a previous encounter with Cleveland, hosted in Cincinnati, Abbott emerged victorious, pitching five innings and allowing six hits and two runs. However, in his most recent five appearances, Abbott has encountered some challenges, going 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA, conceding 23 hits in 21.2 innings pitched.

Reds Stats and Insights


  • The Reds will send Abbott (8-5) to the mound to make his 21st start of the season. He is 8-5 with a 3.70 ERA and 119 strikeouts over 107 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The left-hander’s most recent time out was on Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he went 4 1/3 innings, surrendering two earned runs while allowing four hits.
  • Abbott has pitched five or more innings in a game 13 times this season heading into this outing.
  • He has held his opponents without an earned run in five of his 20 appearances this season.
  • The Reds have been the moneyline underdog in 11 of Abbott’s starts this season, and they went 9-2 in those games.
  • Abbott’s team has won 14 of his 20 starts.
  • Abbott’s starts went over the run total seven times in 20 games with a set total this season.


  • They have won 38 of the 54 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Cincinnati has gone 31-10 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 71 of the 101 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Cincinnati has won 72 of its 88 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have a 26-24 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Final Thoughts/Pick

The Reds appear to have exhausted their chances of securing a wildcard spot, but they are poised to achieve a winning season in 2023. Left-handed pitcher Abbott will make his final start of the season, aiming to finish on a high note after a strong start followed by a cooling-off period. On the opposing side, the Guardians will send Bieber to the mound, who recently returned from the injured list and pitched five innings last week. Bieber has faced challenges this season as he transitions from a power pitcher to a finesse pitcher, relying more on balls in play. Notably, Abbott boasts a 5-1 record on the road this season for Cincinnati. The Reds enter this game as the more motivated team and are likely to secure a victory over the Guardians, making for an attractive money-line bet.

Our Pick: Take Reds and the Money Line

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