Guardians at Mets Preview Game 1 | Fri 7:10 PM. EST. 5/19

May 19, 2023

Andy Billman

Hello Again Frankie Lindor and Cookie Carrasco

The stage is set, as we face some familiar faces, for a series opener on Friday as the New York Mets (22-23) play host to the Guardians (20-23) at 7:10 PM ET.

3 Things: Guards and N.Y. Mets Game 1:

1 – Francisco Lindor 

Cleveland finally gets to play against former teammate Francisco Lindor.  Lindor is off to a slow start in 2023, hitting .225 playing in every game so far for New York. 

2 – Carlos Carrasco 

The Guards also get to see former Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco.  Carrasco has been battling injuries as he makes only his 4th start of the 2023 campaign and is on a pitch count for tonight’s start.  So far, Carrasco has an ERA over eight and has struggled with the pitch clock causing multiple violations. 

3 – Three Runs 

The Guardians have scored three runs or less in the last four games.  Not having Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor has certainly not helped, but someone in the lineup needs to step up while they are away. 

Guardians Notes

Collectively, the Guardians have been averaging 3.5 runs per game, placing them in the 28th position in the league rankings. So far, they have scored a total of 147 runs and have maintained an on-base percentage (OBP) of .304. As a team, the Guardians have hit 70 doubles and 23 home runs. Additionally, they have accumulated 134 runs batted in (RBIs) and 319 hits throughout the season, resulting in a batting average of .229. The Guardians possess a slugging percentage of .341 and have been struck out 315 times while drawing 143 walks.

Their strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio stands at 2.75, and their pitching staff has maintained walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP) of 1.28. The Guardians’ pitchers have given up 43 home runs and a total of 180 runs, ranking them 8th in Major League Baseball (MLB). They have also allowed 369 hits (equivalent to 8.8 hits per 9 innings) and conceded 162 earned runs. With a team earned run average (ERA) of 3.87, the Guardians rank 8th in the league and have struck out 313 opposing batters. Furthermore, their pitching staff has issued 114 walks, and their fielding independent pitching (FIP) stands at 4.13 for the season.

Taking the hill for his ninth start of the season in this game, Cal Quantrill is the starting pitcher for the Guardians. So far, he holds a record of 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.346 WHIP, 15 walks, and 23 strikeouts over 45.1 innings pitched. In his previous start against the Angels on Saturday, Quantrill secured the win for his team. During that game, he threw six innings, allowing three runs on six hits, accompanied by three walks and two strikeouts. The Guardians emerged victorious with an 8-6 score. Over his last three starts, Quantrill has displayed solid performance, going 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, seven walks, and eight strikeouts over 20.1 innings of work. This outing at Citi Field marks Quantrill’s first time pitching at the stadium in his 122nd career major league appearance and 84th start.

Guards Stats and Insights

GUARDIANS PROBABLE PITCHER – Cal Quantrill

  • Quantrill makes the start for the Guardians, his ninth of the season. He is 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 45 1/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last appearance on Saturday against the Los Angeles Angels, the right-hander went six innings, allowing three earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • Quantrill will try to build on a four-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.6 frames per appearance).
  • The Guardians have played when named the money line underdog for three of Quantrill’s starts this season, and they won each time.
  • Quantrill’s team has won six of his eight starts.
  • Quantrill has started seven contests with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in one of them.

GUARDIANS HITTING TRENDS

  • The Guardians have hit 24 home runs this season, the lowest total in baseball.
  • This season, Cleveland has the lowest slugging percentage in the majors (.340).
  • The Guardians rank 28th in the majors with a .227 batting average.
  • Cleveland is the second-lowest scoring team in baseball averaging 3.5 runs per game (150 total).
  • The Guardians’ .301 on-base percentage is the third-worst in the majors.

Mets Notes

The New York Mets have a slugging percentage of .385 and average 4.25 runs per game, ranking 23rd in the league. They have hit 64 doubles, walked 157 times, and scored 187 runs. The team has recorded 47 home runs and 179 runs batted in. However, they have also struck out 329 times (28th in the league) and have a total of 349 base hits. The Mets’ on-base percentage (OBP) is .322, and their team batting average is .240 this season.

Defensively, the Mets have turned 36 double plays and maintain a fielding percentage of .991, ranking 2nd in baseball. They have recorded 364 assists, committed 14 errors, and made 1,140 putouts this season. With a defensive efficiency of 70.3%, the Mets rank 8th in professional baseball out of the 3,420 innings played.

There will always be a soft spot in our hearts in Cleveland for Cookie! Looking at Carrasco’s career, he has given up 1,399 base hits and has recorded 1,515 strikeouts in 1,461 innings pitched. Carrasco holds a career record of 104-87 and has earned a 3.92 ERA, allowing an average of 8.6 hits per nine innings. He has given up 636 earned runs while maintaining a WHIP of 1.223 and a FIP of 3.5. Carrasco has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.90 and has faced 6,062 hitters in his professional baseball career.

Mets Stats and Insights

METS PROBABLE PITCHER – Cookie Carrasco

  • Carrasco has a record of 0-2-0 ATS in two starts with a spread this season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, April 15 against the Oakland Athletics, throwing five innings and giving up two earned runs.
  • Carrasco’s team is 1-1 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the money line.
  • Carrasco’s team has a 1-2 record in his starts this season.
  • In the two games with a total started by Carrasco this season, the teams hit the over once.

METS HITTING TRENDS

  • The Mets rank 16th in Major League Baseball with 48 home runs.
  • The offense for New York has a slugging percentage of .384 this season, 22nd in MLB.
  • The Mets’ .240 batting average ranks 20th in the league this season.
  • New York ranks 18th in the majors with 190 total runs scored this season.
  • The Mets have an OBP of .322 this season, which ranks 14th in MLB.
  • New York is one of the most-disciplined teams at the plate this season, ranking fourth with an average of 7.4 strikeouts per game.

Final Thoughts

In this matchup, the Mets come in as the favored team with a moneyline odds of -151, while the Guardians stand as the underdogs with odds of +128, and the over/under total is set at 8.5 runs.

Both teams don’t stand out to me in this matchup, as they both have poor rankings in the MLB for run-line performance this season. Offensively, the Mets have a slight edge, but the outcome of the game will likely hinge on Carlos Carrasco’s performance on the mound. Additionally, given that Carrasco’s rehab starts only reached a maximum of 52 pitches, it’s unlikely he will pitch deep into this game, relying instead on the bullpen for most of the game.

The Mets’ bullpen has been average this season, with a 4.06 ERA ranking 19th in the MLB. Carrasco has a history as a power pitcher, averaging 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in his career, but the Guardians ranks third in the league for fewest strikeouts per game this season. This suggests that Cleveland will put the ball in play and do enough to secure a victory on the road. The run line may account for the possible absence of Jose Ramirez on Friday, but even with Ramirez in the lineup, Cleveland has underperformed offensively while remaining competitive through other means.

Should be a fun series to watch this weekend with the series finale scheduled as the national Sunday Night televised game on ESPN.

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