Not the same hype as Tanner Bibee vs. Gerrit Cole, but not far off. Big start for Allen as Gray has been near unhittable in 2023 with 0.77 ERA currently.
I try not to get into the weeds of baseball stats, but I did some digging on how the Guards are doing with hard-hit rate, and not surprisingly they are in the bottom three, only the A’s and Reds are worse. I bring that up as a lot of the balls hit by the Guards in 2023 seem like soft outs. Now, in fairness, the Guards were last in this category in 2022 and obviously, it did not matter as they won the Central.
What’s the difference in 2023? In 2022 the Guards were 6th in batting average and in the top half of MLB in on-base percentage (OBP). Currently, the Guards are second to last in batting average and they are in the bottom 3rd of MLB in OBP.
In conclusion, let’s not plan for a home run explosion, not happening with this club. And one of two things will start happening for the Guardians, the balls for outs will start dropping for hits, and runs will naturally go up as they did in 2022. Or 2022 was a fluke, and the Guards are going to have to make a trade to get some hitting into place. I say the latter, hits will start finding holes and runs will be going up from here. I mean Believe in the Land, right?
Let’s not freak out on May 6th, but the Guards are now in third place behind Minnesota and Detroit. This is certainly not a must-win on May 6th, but it would be nice to put the Tums away and get some positive vibes to a team that has little outside of the youthful starting pitching.
The Guardians sit with a 14-18 record overall and the offense really let them down finishing with only three hits and zero runs. The Guardians are averaging 3.63 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.28 runs per game. On the mound for the Guardians will be Logan Allen who sits with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 2.45. In his last start against the Boston Red Sox, he went five innings giving up four hits and two runs.
The Twins sit with a 19-14 record overall and they have really leaned on the pitching, especially the starting pitching for success. On Friday it was Bailey Ober that went seven innings giving up three hits and zero runs. The Twins are averaging 4.52 runs while their pitching is giving up 3.64 runs per game. The offense is ranked 12th while the pitching is ranked 3rd. On the mound for the Twins will be Sonny Gray who sits with a 4-0 record and an ERA of 0.77. In his last start against the Royals, he went six innings giving up five hits and one run.
This season, Sonny Gray has been pitching exceptionally well, which will likely result in the Guardians’ offense struggling on Saturday. It’s probable that the Guardians will only manage to score one or two runs in this game as that has been the pattern against pitchers that are not as good as he is and that will ultimately be the deciding factor.
Need to get the bats going and fast and win this series! God can’t wait for days when we don’t have to type this anymore!
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