Twins at Guardians Preview Game 2 | Sat 6:10 PM. EST. 5/6/23

May 6, 2023

Andy Billman

Another low-hitting low scoring game tonight?

3 Things: Guards and Twins Game 2:

1 – Logan Allen vs. Sonny Gray 

Not the same hype as Tanner Bibee vs. Gerrit Cole, but not far off.  Big start for Allen as Gray has been near unhittable in 2023 with 0.77 ERA currently. 

2 – A deep dive into why the Guards are struggling to hit in 2023. 

I try not to get into the weeds of baseball stats, but I did some digging on how the Guards are doing with hard-hit rate, and not surprisingly they are in the bottom three, only the A’s and Reds are worse.  I bring that up as a lot of the balls hit by the Guards in 2023 seem like soft outs.  Now, in fairness, the Guards were last in this category in 2022 and obviously, it did not matter as they won the Central.  

What’s the difference in 2023?  In 2022 the Guards were 6th in batting average and in the top half of MLB in on-base percentage (OBP). Currently, the Guards are second to last in batting average and they are in the bottom 3rd of MLB in OBP.

In conclusion, let’s not plan for a home run explosion, not happening with this club. And one of two things will start happening for the Guardians, the balls for outs will start dropping for hits, and runs will naturally go up as they did in 2022.  Or 2022 was a fluke, and the Guards are going to have to make a trade to get some hitting into place.  I say the latter, hits will start finding holes and runs will be going up from here.  I mean Believe in the Land, right?

3 – Currently in 3rd.

Let’s not freak out on May 6th, but the Guards are now in third place behind Minnesota and Detroit.  This is certainly not a must-win on May 6th, but it would be nice to put the Tums away and get some positive vibes to a team that has little outside of the youthful starting pitching.  

Guardians Notes

The Guardians sit with a 14-18 record overall and the offense really let them down finishing with only three hits and zero runs. The Guardians are averaging 3.63 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.28 runs per game. On the mound for the Guardians will be Logan Allen who sits with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 2.45. In his last start against the Boston Red Sox, he went five innings giving up four hits and two runs. 

Guards Stats and Insights


  • The Guardians will look to Allen (1-1) to open the game and make his third start this season.
  • In his most recent time out on Sunday, the left-hander threw five innings against the Boston Red Sox, allowing two earned runs while surrendering four hits.
  • Allen will try to last five or more innings for his third straight start. He’s averaging 5.5 frames per outing.
  • The Guardians were named the money-line underdog for one Allen start this season — they lost.
  • His team split the two games he’s appeared in this season.
  • Allen’s two starts with a total this season finished 1-1-0 against the total.


  • They’ve hit two or more homers in four games this season and are 3-1 in those matchups.
  • In three games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 2-1.
  • They have a record of 9-6 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 10 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 8-2.
  • They have an 8-3 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Twins Notes

The Twins sit with a 19-14 record overall and they have really leaned on the pitching, especially the starting pitching for success. On Friday it was Bailey Ober that went seven innings giving up three hits and zero runs. The Twins are averaging 4.52 runs while their pitching is giving up 3.64 runs per game. The offense is ranked 12th while the pitching is ranked 3rd. On the mound for the Twins will be Sonny Gray who sits with a 4-0 record and an ERA of 0.77. In his last start against the Royals, he went six innings giving up five hits and one run.

Twins Stats and Insights


  • Gray’s team is 4-2-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw six innings against the Kansas City Royals, giving up one earned run while allowing five hits.
  • Gray will look to finish five or more innings for the seventh start in a row.
  • Gray’s team has won each of the five games he’s started as the money-line favorite.
  • Gray’s team is 5-1 when he starts this season.
  • Out of Gray’s six starts with a total this season, two have hit the over.


  • The Twins rank seventh in Major League Baseball with 43 home runs.
  • The offense for Minnesota has a slugging percentage of .395 this season, 16th in MLB.
  • The Twins have a team batting average of just .223 this season, which ranks 29th among MLB teams.
  • Minnesota has scored 149 runs (4.5 per game) this season, which ranks 12th in MLB.
  • The Twins have an on-base percentage of .302 this season, which ranks 25th in the league.
  • Minnesota is one of the least-disciplined teams at the plate this season, ranking 29th with an average of 9.7 strikeouts per game.

Final Thoughts

This season, Sonny Gray has been pitching exceptionally well, which will likely result in the Guardians’ offense struggling on Saturday. It’s probable that the Guardians will only manage to score one or two runs in this game as that has been the pattern against pitchers that are not as good as he is and that will ultimately be the deciding factor.

Need to get the bats going and fast and win this series! God can’t wait for days when we don’t have to type this anymore!

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