Guardians (25-32) vs. Twins (31-27) Game Preview | Saturday 6/3 7:15 PM. EST.

June 3, 2023

Andy Billman

Game 3 of 4 Against the Twins

3 Things Preview Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins:

1 – Big start for Allen

After losing the first two games of the series, Cleveland really needs to win at least one of the next two or hopefully get both before heading back to Ohio.  Logan Allen, who was dominant in his last start, is on the bump for the Guards.  Sonny Gray starts for the Twins. 

2 – Plesac update 

Zach Plesac is struggling in Columbus with an ERA above seven (7.59).  I bring it up as a move has to be made to the 40-man roster for the Guards to bring back Triston McKenzie who is starting tomorrow.  Plesac might be off the roster by tomorrow morning and that is my guess on who is moved off the 40-man. 

3 – Brennan on fire 

Since his poor at-bat on Sunday in the 8th inning against St. Louis, Will Brennan has been en fuego at the plate going 9 for 15 this week. 

Guardians Notes

  • The Guardians have been underdogs in 25 games this season and have come away with the win 10 times (40%) in those contests.
  • This season, Cleveland has come away with a win six times in 14 chances when named as an underdog of at least +113 or worse on the money line.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the money line set for this matchup that the Guardians have a 46.9% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Cleveland and its opponents have gone over in 22 of its 57 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Guardians are 26-31-0 against the spread in their 57 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Guards Stats and Insights


  • Allen (2-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Guardians, his eighth of the season.
  • In his most recent time out on Monday against the Baltimore Orioles, the left-hander tossed seven scoreless innings while surrendering three hits.
  • Allen will try to last five or more innings for his fourth straight start. He’s averaging 5.6 frames per outing.
  • The Guardians have been the money line underdog in three of Allen’s starts this season, and they went 2-1 in those games.
  • Over Allen’s seven starts, his team is 4-3.
  • Allen’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in two of seven contests.


  • They have won five of the seven games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Cleveland has won four of its eight games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have a record of 14-16 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Cleveland has a 11-5 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 17 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 9-8

Twins Notes

  • The Twins have been favorites in 35 games this season and won 24 (68.6%) of those contests.
  • This season Minnesota has won 16 of its 25 games, or 64%, when favored by at least -135 on the money line.
  • The sportsbooks’ money line implies a 57.4% chance of a victory for the Twins.
  • Minnesota’s games have gone over the total in 25 of its 58 chances.
  • The Twins have an ATS record of 28-30-0 in 58 games with a spread this season.

Twins Stats and Insights


  • Gray’s team is 5-6-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Monday when he tossed six innings while giving up two earned runs on four hits in a matchup with the Houston Astros.
  • Gray will look to finish five or more innings for the third start in a row.
  • Gray’s team has been victorious in 71.4% of the games he’s started as the money line favorite with a record of 5-2.
  • Gray’s team has won six of his 11 starts this season.
  • Out of Gray’s 11 starts with a total this season, five have hit the over.


  • The Twins have hit at least two dingers in 33 games this season, and are 28-5 in those outings.
  • Minnesota is undefeated in its 20 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
  • The team has put up at least eight hits in 40 games this season and is 33-7 in those contests.
  • Minnesota is 34-3 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Twins have drawn at least five walks in 24 games this season, and are 15-9 in those contests.

Final Thoughts/Pick

Although Logan Allen has shown promise in his first 10 career starts, he falls short compared to the current performance of Sonny Gray. Cleveland possesses an exceptional bullpen, yet Minnesota has the ability to contend with it. Both teams have average offenses, but Cleveland’s is particularly lackluster, almost comparable to the struggling Oakland Athletics. Minnesota maintains their winning streak at home with their dominant Cy Young candidate on the mound, overpowering a subpar opposing offense.

Our Pick: Twins beat Guards 5-2

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