Lucas Giolito will debut on Monday night in a critical series for the Guards. Giolito had a tough August with an ERA over seven.
Josh Naylor was back in Cleveland yesterday, and in conjunction, Oscar Gonzalez was sent back down to Columbus. Gonzalez only has one hit in his last 15 at-bats.
At a time when Cleveland needs their star players to perform, Andrez Gimenez is struggling at the plate. Gimenez, who was not in the lineup on Sunday, only has two hits in his last 19 at-bats.
Cleveland entered Sunday’s game on a four-game winning streak, determined to maintain their position in the division race. Their strategy? Leverage their formidable pitching staff to narrow the gap further. However, this match introduced a fresh face in the form of Lucas Giolito, acquired through waivers and now playing for his third team in 2023. Between stints with the White Sox and Angels, Giolito brings with him a 4.45 ERA, 4.94 FIP, and 1.275 WHIP to Lake Erie. An advantage of exclusively pitching for American League teams is that he’s already faced the Minnesota Twins three times this year. In those 18.0 innings, the Twins only managed to score two runs and hit one home run. While all three games resulted in losses, Giolito can take comfort in having a much stronger bullpen backing him up in Cleveland compared to his previous stints in Chicago and Anaheim. With this solid support, which ranks third in ERA, his first victory with the Guardians should be well within reach.
Like the other teams in the AL Central, Cleveland’s primary challenge revolves around scoring, or rather, the lack thereof. The Guardians have hit fewer home runs than any other club, although Josh Naylor’s return, boasting a .500 slugging percentage (the highest on the team), promises to provide a boost. Additionally, they struggle to draw walks, despite boasting the MLB’s second-best strikeout rate. In many respects, they are polar opposites of the Twins. However, despite these differences, Cleveland ranks only 26th in runs per game this season. If this trend persists, the Guardians may find themselves excluded from postseason play, regardless of the outcome of this series.
After opening up a five-game lead over the Guardians on Sunday, the Minnesota Twins are poised to maintain their position atop the AL Central as this series draws to a close. The looming question, however, is just how substantial that lead will be. Up to this point in the season, they’ve struggled to claim a series victory against Cleveland, but the present moment offers a prime opportunity to change that narrative. The Twins’ dependable pitching staff has been a driving force behind their success, and on Monday, it will be Pablo Lopez, an offseason trade acquisition, taking the mound, aiming to justify his acquisition cost.
Lopez has a chance to redeem himself after enduring two challenging outings against the Guardians earlier in the season. In those two encounters, spanning 11.2 innings, he surrendered 16 hits and allowed nine runs, one of which tarnished his five-start winning streak. However, Lopez boasts an impressive 2.87 ERA on the road, suggesting that redemption may very well be within his reach.
While pitching is a vital component, the Twins’ offense needs to step up against Cleveland this time around, regardless of the performance of their pitchers. In their previous ten matchups against the Guardians, Minnesota has only managed to score more than three runs on two occasions. Batting at a paltry .201 and averaging a mere 3.00 runs per game against the toughest competition in the division is simply not a winning formula. Nevertheless, there is hope, as the Twins averaged nearly five runs in August and kicked off September with 14 runs scored in their first two games. The Twins’ offensive consistency has been streaky, and they may currently be on the hotter side. However, their propensity for striking out more frequently than any other team diminishes the significance of strong home run and walk statistics, particularly when facing formidable pitching teams.
The Guardians are currently displaying exceptional performance, relying on strong pitching and just enough offense to secure victories. Their consistent success against the Twins throughout the year is evident, as they hold a 6-4 head-to-head record entering this final series. With a winning home record of 35-33, coupled with the Twins’ subpar performance as visitors (31-36), several factors favor the Guardians in Monday’s matchup.
One significant advantage is the recent addition of Lucas Giolito, who boasts an impressive 1.00 ERA against Minnesota in 18.0 innings pitched this season. The Twins were already struggling to score against the Guardians, managing only 30 runs in 10 games, and Giolito’s presence will only add to their woes. On the flip side, Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez has struggled against the Guardians, giving up nine runs in 11.2 innings. Additionally, Cleveland holds the upper hand in the bullpen department. With these factors in play, it’s clear that pitching prowess will be the driving force behind the Guardians’ quest for victory.
Our Pick: Take Guardians and the Money Line
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