June 7, 2023
Andy Billman
Gm 2 of 3 Game Series Against the Red Sox
3 Things Preview Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians:
1 – Bibee time
Tanner Bibee is on the bump for the Guardians as he looks to get his second-ever MLB win. Boston is starting a reliever with Kutter Crawford. One would think this would be a huge advantage for Cleveland.
2 – Catcher
There’s been a lot of banter by fans and journalists about whether it is time for Cleveland to bring up Bo Naylor from Columbus. Currently, Cleveland catchers rank last in most hitter categories in MLB. Naylor is batting .258 with 11 home runs and 44 RBIs.
3 – WAR
Sixty games into the season, it always is a good time to see who is leading in the WAR category for the Guards. There’s a tie for best with a WAR at 1.3, Andres Gimenez and Jose Ramirez. Last on the team with WAR, Amad Rosario, -0.8.
Guardians Notes
Guardian relievers (it’s a good bullpen! really!) continued to be at their absolute worst in the most high-leverage spots. Tyler Freeman pinch-ran instead of pinch-hitting for Myles Straw.
Guardians Stats and Insights
GUARDIANS PROBABLE PITCHER – Tanner Bibee
- Bibee (1-1) gets the starting nod for the Guardians in his eighth start of the season. He has a 3.20 ERA in 39 1/3 innings pitched, with 40 strikeouts.
- The righty’s last appearance came on Thursday against the Minnesota Twins, when he tossed five innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing six hits.
- The 24-year-old has put up an ERA of 3.20, with 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings, in seven games this season. Opponents are batting .234 against him.
- Bibee is trying to collect his fourth quality start of the season in this outing.
- Bibee will look to go five or more innings for his fifth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.6 frames per outing.
- The opposing Red Sox offense has the sixth-ranked slugging percentage (.429) and is 19th in MLB play with 66 home runs. It has a collective .262 batting average and is fourth in MLB with 546 total hits and fourth in MLB play scoring 311 runs.
GUARDIANS HITTING TRENDS
- The Guardians’ 35 home runs rank last in MLB this season.
- Hitters for Cleveland have combined to rank 29th in the majors with a .348 team slugging percentage.
- The Guardians’ .232 batting average ranks 23rd in the league this season.
- Cleveland is among the lowest-scoring teams in the majors, ranking 29th with just 216 total runs (3.6 per game) this season.
- The Guardians have an OBP of just .300 this season, which ranks 27th in MLB.
- Cleveland has shown patience at the plate this season with the second-best rate of strikeouts per game (7.1) among MLB offenses.
Red Sox Notes
The Red Sox relief pitchers have recorded a save rate of 68.2% and stepped onto the hill in 52 save situations. The relief pitchers have inherited 47 runners on the year with 34.0% of those runners ending up scoring. Red Sox pitchers have entered the contest with players on base 28 times and also have had 42 appearances in high-leverage situations. The Red Sox have dispatched 186 relievers to the mound so far this season. The relief pitchers have racked up 30 holds so far this year (19th in the league). They have 15 saves this season and have blown 7 of their 22 chances to save the game.
The Boston Red Sox have amassed 1,584 putouts on the year, as well as 502 assists and 40 errors. Their fielding percentage is at .981 which puts them in 29th in baseball, and have 41 double plays. The Red Sox have transformed 68.5% of balls hit into play into outs out of 4,752 innings on the field, ranking them 20th in professional baseball.
Red Sox Stats and Insights
RED SOX PROBABLE PITCHER – Cutter Crawford
- Crawford (1-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 33 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Red Sox, his fourth of the season.
- In his last time out on Saturday, the righty threw three innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, giving up one earned run while surrendering two hits.
- The 27-year-old has amassed an ERA of 3.48, with 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 11 games this season. Opponents are hitting .203 against him.
- Crawford will try to record his third game of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages three innings per appearance.
- The opposing Guardians offense has a collective .232 batting average and is 25th in the league with 466 total hits and 29th in MLB action with 216 runs scored. They have the 29th-ranked slugging percentage (.348) and are last in all of MLB with 35 home runs.
- In four innings over one appearance against the Guardians this season, Crawford has a 2.25 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP while his opponents are hitting .200
RED SOX HITTING TRENDS
- The Red Sox rank 19th in baseball with 66 home runs. They average 1.1 per game.
- This season, Boston’s .429 slugging percentage ranks sixth-best in baseball.
- The Red Sox are fifth in MLB with a .262 batting average.
- The offense for Boston is No. 4 in MLB, scoring 5.1 runs per game (311 total runs).
- The Red Sox’s .334 on-base percentage ranks third-best in MLB.
Final Thoughts/Pick
- The Guardians have won 15, or 46.9%, of the 32 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Cleveland is 9-13 this season when entering a game favored by -130 or more on the money line.
- The money line for this contest implies a 56.5% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
- Cleveland and its opponents have hit the over in 23 of its 60 games with a total this season.
- In 60 games with a spread this season, the Guardians are 29-31-0 ATS.
- The Red Sox have been victorious in 15, or 44.1%, of the 34 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- Boston has a win-loss record of 12-12 when favored by +110 or worse by bookmakers this year.
- The Red Sox have an implied victory probability of 47.6% according to the money line set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Boston and its opponents have gone over in 36 of its 61 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- In 61 games with a line this season, the Red Sox have a mark of 31-30-0 against the spread.
Our Pick: Take the Red Sox Money Line and Over 8 Runs
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