Browns Season Prop Bets – Opportunities and Value

September 1, 2023

Tony Camino

2023 Browns Team Betting Lines and Player Props

Anticipation is growing around a promising year for the Cleveland Browns. With a completely revamped offense, highlighted by the first full year of Deshaun Watson at the helm, as well as a new defensive coordinator and improved defensive line, there is no better time than now for the Browns to make a significant impact.

The transition from a Jacoby Brissett-centered offense to a Watson-centered offense has affected the entire unit and resulted in statistics that hold little relevance to the upcoming season. Consequently, Vegas has set some lines for the Browns lower than they should be, presenting opportunities for advantageous wagers. Let’s look at some of the upcoming season’s lines for the Browns and their implications.

Team Lines

Win total: 9.5 wins: +108 on FanDuel

Coming off a seven-win season, the AFC North is once again poised to be one of the toughest divisions in the league. While Kevin Stefanski’s highest win total with the Browns stands at 11, no other team possesses the level of talent found on the current Browns roster. It may sound like a recurring theme in recent years, with Browns fans constantly discussing the team’s abundance of talent. However, this time around, the quarterback situation makes all the difference, as the team finally has a signal-caller who allows the coach to expand the playbook beyond relying solely on the running game. If Deshaun Watson can return to his previous form, which his tape from last year suggests he can, the Browns’ roster will rival those of the top AFC contenders.

The Browns’ offense is poised to be one of the best units in the NFL, with no glaring weaknesses, while the defense should see significant improvement with the additions to the defensive line and the introduction of Jim Schwartz as the coordinator. Barring major injuries, it’s hard to envision the Browns having less than a 50% chance of reaching 10 wins.

The Browns’ win total is more aligned with teams like the Dolphins, Jets, and Jaguars, whereas other contenders like the Bengals have their win total set at 11.5. Although the track records of other AFC teams may be more established and consistent, the potential of this Browns team matches that of traditional powerhouses, making the line at 9.5 a solid value.

Our Pick: Over 9.5 wins

To Win the Super Bowl: +2800

If the idea of the Browns surpassing 9.5 wins catches your interest, you may also want to consider placing a small bet on their Super Bowl odds. The current line suggests that the Browns have approximately a 3.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl, placing them just below the Dolphins and slightly ahead of the Vikings. While some may view the Dolphins and Browns as similar teams, the disparity in quarterback potential is significant and provides the Browns with a much more realistic opportunity to make a deep playoff run.

Although I’m not necessarily saying that the Browns will win the Super Bowl, I do believe that the current odds are inaccurately priced and may provide a chance for a profitable cash-out later in the season.

Our Pick: No more than 0.25 units (one unit = 1% of total betting bankroll)

Browns to score 1+TD in every regular season game: +250

Through three seasons as the Browns’ head coach, Kevin Stefanski led offenses that have only failed to score a touchdown once throughout the course of a game. The one game without a touchdown came at home in 2020 against the Las Vegas Raiders, where gametime winds were reported to be near 40 miles per hour.

While Stefanski has had great offensive line play, leading one of the best rushing attacks in football, he has managed to produce impressive offensive seasons for the Browns despite average (at best) quarterback play. By tailoring the offense entirely towards Watson, the best players will be positioned to make plays. If Watson can regain his form, it would be surprising not to see the Browns score a touchdown in every game. The main concern when betting on this outcome is the extreme weather in Cleveland in November. However, the team’s ability to effectively move the ball on the ground should alleviate that worry.

  • Browns’ offense is top 10 in EPA/play (estimated points added per play) since Stefanski took over.
  • Finished 12th in offensive EPA/play in 2022 despite QB changes.
  • Full attention geared toward Watson should help the offense find an identity.

Our Pick: No more than one unit

Player Prop Lines

Deshaun Watson: 3525.5 passing yards.

While there are public concerns about Watson returning to form after his extended absence, the film reveals promising signs in all aspects of his game. His accuracy, arm strength, and ability to make plays with his legs were all evident during the six games he played in 2022. The primary area that requires improvement is his timing with decision-making, as he often showed a slight delay, giving the defense more time to disrupt plays. However, his reads were generally correct, albeit slightly delayed, resulting in more passes being broken up. With more real-time repetitions, his timing will only improve, pointing towards a much better 2023 season.

Once Watson fully regains his timing and rhythm, it is difficult to envision him not exceeding this passing yardage line. The Browns’ offensive unit is undoubtedly the most talented he has ever led, with the coaching of Kevin Stefanski surpassing that of Bill O’Brien. The offensive line remains one of the league’s best, Nick Chubb sets the standard for running backs, and the receiving corps is led by veteran All-Pro Amari Cooper, who demonstrated his continued excellence last year. Additional receiving complements such as David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Elijah Moore make this offense the most well-rounded Watson has worked with as a professional. If he plays a full season and regains most of his timing, he will easily surpass this passing yardage line with games to spare.

  • 3 seasons with more than seven games, all over 3525 yards
  • The closest miss at 3852 yards in 2019, sat out the final game.
  • Career-best was 4823 in 2020, Texans were always losing and forced to throw the ball.

Our Pick: Over 3525.5 passing yards.

Nick Chubb: 1200.5 rushing yards

Nick Chubb may be the best pure rusher in the sport. Over the past few seasons, Chubb consistently ranked near the top of the leaderboard in yards per attempt, maintaining a minimum of five yards per carry throughout his career. While the Browns’ strong offensive line play contributes to this success, Chubb’s rushing yards over expected reveal his true dominance. This statistic considers various factors such as the offensive line and the defense, and Chubb has ranked in the top two for the past four seasons.

Chubb has only failed to reach this rushing yardage mark once since his rookie season, and even then, he only played 12 games that year. If he remains healthy and participates in at least 14 games, he should easily surpass this line and contend for the rushing title once again.

  • Coming off a career-high 1525 rushing yards
  • First full workload – RB2 Jerome Ford likely used just to spell Chubb.
  • No Kareem Hunt to take away third-down and goal-line touches.

Our Pick: Over 1200.5 rushing yards

Amari Cooper: 925.5 receiving yards.

Last year, the Browns’ offense primarily operated under center, emphasizing a downhill running game to create opportunities in the short and medium passing game. Kevin Stefanski has indicated plans to expand the playbook and cater it more towards Deshaun Watson‘s strengths, incorporating a shotgun, run-pass option (RPO) offense. Amari Cooper is expected to benefit greatly from this revamped offensive approach, and the more he can be utilized in space running routes, the more opportunities he will have to get open for Watson.

It’s hard to find a good reason why this line is performing so poorly after last season. Cooper excelled on this line last year in a run-first offense, displaying efficient play and appearing in every game, which silenced concerns about his durability. If Watson returns to form, he will bring a significant upgrade to that position, making Cooper the number one wide receiver in a pass-heavy, high-scoring offense.

  • 1000+ yards in 6/8 NFL seasons
  • The last miss came in 2021; CeeDee Lamb’s emergence & Dalton Schultz’s volume took away targets.
  • 1160 yards on career-best 132 targets in 2022, finished top 20 in yards per route run.

Our Pick: Over 925.5 receiving yards.


It’s challenging not to be optimistic about the Browns’ prospects this season. The team boasts its best quarterback, running back, wide receiver, defender, and coach since its return, with no glaring weaknesses in the roster at this point. I have confidence in Stefanski’s ability to maximize the potential of this offense and transform it into a top-10 unit in the league, especially considering what he achieved with less talent at the quarterback position. Watson finding his rhythm, along with an improved interior push from the defense, are key factors that will determine the success of these bets this year.

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